Chapter 12. Metrics and Forecasting
How to use this chapter
Use this chapter when you need to understand exactly where the funnel breaks: market, profile relevance, message, compensation, client speed, or assessment quality.
Remember in one phrase
Sourcing metrics are not for pressuring recruiters; they are for choosing the next hypothesis and management decision.
If you have a task
| If you have a task | Go to section | What you get |
|---|---|---|
| Calculate basic metrics | How to calculate basic metrics | Formulas and meaning |
| Understand process state | Core metrics | Questions the funnel answers |
| Find the bottleneck | Diagnostics | Next action by problem |
| Show business impact | How sourcing affects revenue | A cautious impact estimate without false promises |
How to calculate basic metrics
| Metric | Formula | What it shows |
|---|---|---|
| Saved profile rate | saved profiles / viewed profiles | Whether the search hypothesis is relevant |
| Reply rate | replies / candidates messaged | Whether the pool and message work |
| Interested reply rate | interested replies / candidates messaged | Whether there is real interest, not just a polite reply |
| Qualified reply rate | qualified candidates / replies | How precise the search is |
| Client approval rate | approved profiles / submitted profiles | Whether initial assessment matches the client's bar |
| Interview conversion | interviews / qualified initial calls | How calibrated the recruiter is |
| Offer conversion | offers / interviews | Whether the process and assessment are competitive |
| SLA feedback compliance | on-time feedback / feedback requests | Whether the process protects speed and candidates |
Core metrics
| Metric | Which question it answers |
|---|---|
| Candidates found | Does the source provide volume? |
| Candidates reviewed | Was discovery sufficient? |
| Candidates saved | Is the market relevant? |
| Candidates contacted | Does research turn into communication? |
| Reply rate | Are candidates engaging? |
| Interested reply rate | Does the role create interest? |
| Qualified reply rate | Is search relevant enough? |
| Initial call conversion | Do replies match criteria? |
| Interview conversion | Does initial screening match the client bar? |
| Offer conversion | Is the process competitive? |
| Time to feedback | Are we losing process momentum? |
| Source quality | Which sources produce qualified candidates? |
Diagnostics
| Problem | Signal | What to do |
|---|---|---|
| Search | Low saved rate among viewed profiles | Rebuild hypotheses |
| Message | Relevant candidates do not reply | Rewrite the first contact |
| Compensation | Conversations stop at salary | Calibrate the range |
| Client speed | Candidates disappear after the call | Introduce SLA |
| Requirements | Many near-fit rejections | Reclassify must-have requirements |
| Employer brand | Candidates ask 'who are you?' | Strengthen evidence and role brief |
AI prompts for the chapter
The full prompt for funnel diagnostics is in Appendix G.9. Before using it, check that metrics are calculated consistently across roles and rejection reasons are recorded factually, not evaluatively.
What to take from the chapter / where to go next
Take the habit of ending metrics with a decision: what to test next, what to change in the brief, and what risk to show the client.
