Chapter 12. Metrics and Forecasting
How to Use This Chapter
Use this chapter when you need to understand exactly where the funnel breaks: market, profile relevance, message, compensation, client speed, or evaluation quality.
Remember in One Phrase
Sourcing metrics exist not to pressure the recruiter but to select the next hypothesis and inform management decisions.
| If Your Task Is | Go to Section | What You Get |
|---|---|---|
| Calculate baseline numbers | How to calculate baseline metrics | Formulas and meaning of each metric |
| Explain sourcing value to the business | How sourcing affects revenue | Cautious language without fake ROI |
| Find the bottleneck | Diagnostics | A table of signals and actions |
| Prepare an AI draft of funnel analysis | AI prompts for this chapter | Link to the diagnostics prompt |
Quick Chapter Map
1. First, agree on what is counted at each stage.
2. Then calculate baseline conversions.
3. Find the weakest funnel transition.
4. Formulate one experiment for the next week.
Minimal Start
In 30 minutes, collect five numbers: reviewed, saved, contacted, replies, qualified candidates. Calculate two ratios: saved / reviewed and replies / contacted. If the first is low, fix the search hypothesis; if the second is low, fix the pool, message, or role proposition.
Principle
Metrics are a management tool, not a pressure tool. They show where the funnel breaks and which hypothesis to test.
What Sourcing Metrics Are
Sourcing metrics are operational indicators that show whether the team is finding the right market, writing to the right people, creating candidate interest, and turning that interest into qualified hiring conversations. This is not the same as "recruiter activity." Activity shows that work was done. Metrics show whether that work moved the role closer to closure.
Why They Matter and for Whom
For the recruiter: to understand which hypothesis to test next.
For the client: to see real market constraints and the cost of slow feedback.
For the recruitment lead: to forecast capacity, timelines, and process bottlenecks.
For HRD and the business: to link talent availability to business plan risk.
For the agency: to show the client what has already been tested, where the brief is too narrow, and what decision is needed.
How to Calculate Baseline Metrics
| Metric | Formula | What It Shows |
|---|---|---|
| Saved profile ratio | saved profiles / reviewed profiles | Whether the search hypothesis is relevant |
| Reply ratio | replies / candidates contacted | Whether the pool and message work |
| Interested reply ratio | interested replies / candidates contacted | Whether there is real interest, not just a polite reply |
| Qualified reply ratio | qualified candidates / replies | How precise the search is |
| Client approval ratio | approved profiles / submitted profiles | Whether initial evaluation matches the client's bar |
| Interview conversion | interviews / qualified screening calls | How well calibrated the recruiter is |
| Offer conversion | offers / interviews | Whether the process and evaluation are competitive |
| Feedback SLA compliance | feedback on time / feedback requests | Whether the process protects speed and candidates |
How Sourcing Affects Revenue
Sourcing affects revenue not directly, but by protecting business capacity and the speed of closing important roles.
1. Fast access to qualified candidates reduces vacancy duration in roles critical to revenue.
2. Market facts help the business adjust requirements in time, before the role stalls.
3. More relevant candidates improve interview quality and reduce wasted stakeholder time.
4. Better input for selection increases the probability of quality hiring, which is linked to productivity, retention, and team performance.
Sourcing does not "create revenue" on its own. It protects revenue potential and operational team capacity by reducing the risk of a long vacancy and increasing the likelihood that a strategic role is filled by someone who can do the job.
Evidence note: Schmidt and Hunter link valid selection methods to job performance and utility (doi:10.1037/0033-2909.124.2.262). Huselid links HR practices to turnover, productivity, and corporate financial performance (doi:10.2307/256741). O'Boyle and Aguinis show that the contribution of top performers may be disproportionate (doi:10.1111/j.1744-6570.2011.01239.x). On talent search as a system of economic matching, see arXiv:1809.06481.
Revenue Impact Assessment Template
Role:
Business impact of one closed position:
Expected monthly contribution or protected revenue:
Current vacancy duration:
What improvement sourcing will deliver:
Estimated days saved:
Potentially protected revenue potential:
Assumptions:
Risks:
Decision needed:
Example
If a sales role carries a monthly quota of $80,000 and improved sourcing reduces vacancy duration by 20 days, you should not promise "$53,000 of created revenue."
It is better to say: "Improved sourcing could protect up to ~$53,000 of planned capacity, accounting for time to productivity, territory quality, conversions, and actual productivity."
Key Metrics
| Metric | Question It Answers |
|---|---|
| Candidates found | Does the source provide volume? |
| Candidates reviewed | Is discovery sufficient? |
| Candidates saved | Is the market relevant? |
| Candidates contacted | Does research convert to communication? |
| Reply ratio | Are candidates engaging? |
| Interested reply ratio | Does the role generate interest? |
| Qualified reply ratio | Is the search relevant enough? |
| Screening call conversion | Do replies match the criteria? |
| Interview conversion | Does initial screening match the client's bar? |
| Offer conversion | Is the process competitive? |
| Time to feedback | Are we losing process momentum? |
| Source quality | Which sources deliver qualified candidates? |
Key Takeaways / Where to Go Next
Take away the habit of ending every metrics review with a decision: what we test next, what we change in the brief, and which risk we show the client. If you need to bring in AI and tools, move to Chapter 13, but keep to the data rules and manual verification.
